In the previous federal election, Quebec saw a shift in focus from defending the province’s interests to defending Canada against the backdrop of Donald Trump’s tariff threats and rhetoric suggesting Canada could become the 51st state. Mark Carney’s Liberals successfully tapped into this sentiment, achieving their best result in Quebec in decades and overshadowing the Bloc Québécois. Discussions on Quebec identity, secularism, and language were overshadowed by the noise from Washington.
As the provincial election commences, the question arises whether the U.S. president will once again play a significant role. The imposition of new tariffs dominated pre-election discussions, compelling every party leader to demonstrate their ability to protect the province from potential economic repercussions.
Economic stability has emerged as a central theme, potentially shifting voter priorities from issues like healthcare, housing, and living costs. The Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ), facing a dissatisfied electorate after two terms in power, stands to benefit most if voters prioritize economic stability.
Recent reports indicate that Quebec, heavily reliant on automotive, metals, and manufacturing exports, is among the provinces most vulnerable to the impact of the new tariffs. Parti Québécois (PQ) leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, leading in opinion polls, aimed to ease tensions by confirming a delay in any referendum until the end of Trump’s second term.
Christine Fréchette, leader of the CAQ, leverages her incumbency during these uncertain times. With recent announcements of financial aid programs for businesses affected by tariffs, the CAQ hopes to mirror Mark Carney’s rise to popularity after taking over an unpopular government.
Fréchette’s opponents are challenging her ability to navigate the current situation effectively. St-Pierre Plamondon criticized her negotiation tactics, while Charles Milliard of the Quebec Liberals emphasized their capacity to foster stronger intergovernmental relationships.
Various parties are proposing different strategies to address the economic challenges posed by the tariffs. Québec Solidaire suggests a “Trump provision” to support affected workers and businesses, while Éric Duhaime’s Conservatives propose significant spending cuts and tax relief.
The upcoming election hinges on which leader can reassure voters and demonstrate steady leadership amidst the uncertainties brought by Trump and the tariffs. The outcome remains uncertain as parties strive to position themselves as the best choice to weather the storm ahead.