Russia’s oil exports through the Northern Sea Route (NSR) in 2026 have surpassed last year’s levels by close to 50%. Traders and data indicate that around 20 million barrels have been transported to Asia from July to mid-October this year. The NSR connects Russia’s western ports to Asian markets through icy Arctic waters, known for being a riskier and costlier route. However, due to disruptions in other key routes like the Suez Canal, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Black Sea, the NSR has become more attractive.
Tanker freight rates have reached record highs due to conflicts in regions like Iran and Ukraine, leading Asian refiners to seek oil alternatives from the Middle East and Latin America. The high tariffs for using the NSR, which requires icebreaker assistance, have become more economical compared to the traditional Red Sea route to Asia.
For Russia, controlling the NSR provides a secure option compared to European waters, where its tankers have faced arrests this year. Traders’ early estimates suggest that Russian oil exports via the Arctic route are expected to increase by another five to 10 million barrels by the end of the navigation season.
Gazprom Neft, a major Russian oil company, plans to boost its NSR shipments by approximately 35% this year compared to 2025. Russia also ships significant amounts of liquid natural gas (LNG) to Asia through the NSR, with expectations for increased LNG supply following the initiation of Arctic LNG shipments.
During an economic forum in Vladivostok, President Vladimir Putin stated that Russia anticipates doubling cargo turnover via the NSR to 70 million tonnes annually by the decade’s end. The commencement of Rosneft’s Vostok Oil project in northern Russia last month has already contributed to the escalating volumes utilizing the NSR.