After Andy Burnham expressed his desire to compete in the Gorton and Denton by-election, Keir Starmer found himself in a challenging position. Allowing Burnham to run posed the risk of fueling speculation about a potential leadership challenge, while also eliminating a barrier for Burnham as only MPs are eligible to run for the leadership position.
Furthermore, the added complication of facing an unexpected mayoral by-election in Greater Manchester, alongside difficult elections in Scotland, Wales, and English councils in May, could spell trouble for Labour. Poor results in these elections might pose a significant threat to Starmer, with contenders like Burnham poised to seize the opportunity.
The alternative option, which the Prime Minister ultimately chose, was to block Burnham’s candidacy citing the financial burden on taxpayers for organizing a mayoral race and the diversion of party resources from the upcoming May elections. While this move neutralizes the immediate risk, it could have detrimental long-term consequences.
Following the announcement, there was a wave of frustration among MPs, accusing Labour’s governing body of orchestrating a setup. Burnham could potentially become a symbol of discontent for dissatisfied backbenchers who view the decision as excessive control from Downing Street.
The Parliamentary party has previously shown a tendency for rebellion, influencing several Government U-turns, and provoking them further won’t ease Starmer’s responsibilities.
A government minister I spoke to privately suggested that allowing Burnham to run might have been a bolder move, and by blocking him, Starmer could be perceived as weak.
The decision to bar Burnham, coupled with aggressive briefings against potential leadership challengers like Wes Streeting, raises questions about the motives behind these actions. While some argue that these decisions stem from a position of strength, many believe they reflect weakness.
Supporters of the Prime Minister argue that the Burnham decision should quell internal disputes that have wearied the public. However, until Starmer can boost Labour’s diminishing poll numbers, doubts about his leadership may persist.
Despite having critics who claim he prioritizes personal ambitions over the needs of Greater Manchester residents, Burnham remains a popular figure with a strong reputation beyond Westminster, earning him the moniker “King of the North” during the pandemic.
Although Labour comfortably won Gorton in 2024, they face a challenge to retain it as Reform intensifies efforts to cause an upset, while the Greens target left-leaning voters. Burnham cautioned about the consequences of blocking his candidacy on the by-election outcome, emphasizing the potential repercussions if Labour loses.
Failure in that by-election could have severe consequences for the party.