Health authorities combating the Ebola crisis in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo are utilizing de-identified mobile data to track population movements and pinpoint potential virus transmission areas, as reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) and collaborating researchers. This innovative strategy, a first in Ebola responses, is being implemented amid challenges in containing what the WHO has labeled as the most rapidly escalating Ebola outbreak on record. The outbreak has affected six provinces, with over 6,250 individuals infected and 3,039 fatalities since its declaration on May 15, according to the latest government figures.
This 17th Ebola outbreak in Congo is attributed to the Bundibugyo strain of Ebola, for which there are no approved vaccines or treatments. With the virus spreading, health officials are seeking proactive methods to forecast potential outbreak locations and allocate surveillance and response resources efficiently.
Olivier Le Polain, the head of epidemiology and analytics for the WHO Health Emergencies Programme, highlighted the significance of population movements in epidemics, particularly in the current crisis. While conventional risk assessments focus on outbreak hotspots, analyzing mobility data enables responders to identify risks in geographically distant yet interconnected regions due to travel patterns.
Flowminder, a Swedish non-profit, compiles the analysis using de-identified records from mobile network connections to estimate population movements. These records are generated when individuals’ phones connect to various network antennas while traveling. The data, provided at no cost by Vodacom, Congo’s largest telecom operator, is used to predict how infectious individuals move.
Flowminder’s initial analysis concentrated on locations where the outbreak originated, such as Bunia, Mongbwalu, and Rwampara, tracking travel patterns from April 3 to April 23. The findings revealed that regions receiving the most significant traveler flows from these areas reported confirmed Ebola cases by the end of June.
Expanding the analysis to additional affected regions, Flowminder identified potential travel patterns from hotspots, with a particular focus on Kisangani, a pivotal transport hub linking eastern and western Congo. The data indicated a significant risk of the outbreak spreading to Kisangani, prompting intensified operations before the detection of initial cases.
Recent studies emphasized connections between Kisangani and Kinshasa, Congo’s capital, as well as settlements along the Congo River and areas near borders with neighboring countries. The WHO has cautioned about the outbreak spilling over to Kinshasa and neighboring nations, estimating a 70% probability of a case emerging in Kinshasa by the end of September.
While the analysis relies on data from Congolese mobile networks, providing a limited view of international movements, efforts are underway to collaborate with other operators to enhance coverage and access more comprehensive data, according to Flowminder and UN officials involved in the response.