Canada’s major banks provided positive economic outlooks, in contrast to concerns from numerous small businesses amid the ongoing trade war with the United States. Royal Bank of Canada, Toronto-Dominion Bank, and CIBC disclosed their financial results before the Toronto Stock Exchange opening. With assets totaling up to $6 trillion, these banking giants possess significant consumer and business debt portfolios, giving them a unique perspective on tariff impacts.
RBC’s CEO, Dave McKay, highlighted the economy’s resilience, citing improvements in employment and GDP in Q2 as reasons for a cautiously optimistic outlook. TD Bank’s CEO, Raymond Chun, mentioned an upcoming “super cycle” of investment in Canada, driven by government spending on infrastructure and national defense. Meanwhile, CIBC’s CEO, Harry Culham, expressed confidence in the latter half of 2026 but refrained from speculating on the evolving trade environment.
CIBC’s chief risk officer, Frank Guse, emphasized monitoring Canada’s labor market for signs of weakness. Studies suggest that eliminating the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) could lead to job losses in Canada. BMO Capital Markets predicts a slight reduction in Canadian growth due to the latest U.S. tariffs, primarily affecting business confidence and investment.
The CEOs of National Bank, Bank of Montreal, and Scotiabank have also expressed confidence in Canada’s economy amidst the trade war. The Toronto Stock Exchange reflects this sentiment, with Canadian bank shares trading near record highs. The iShares S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index ETF, comprising Canadian bank stocks, has surged over 46% year-to-date.